June 30, 2020
In summary, the estimated losses in 2020 for the California wine industry, based on the data as of April 16, are approximately $4.219 billion. The broader economic impacts of these losses are based on the linkages of this industry to the state economy. Specifically, the following bullets provide a summary:
- The job losses are 16,369 for the $4.219 billion directly, and there are additional job losses of 26,007 based on the indirect and induced job losses;
- This is a total loss of over 42,376 jobs in California throughout hundreds of industries;
- The revenue multiplier in this analysis is 2.28, meaning for every dollar of direct loss there is 122.8% additional loss to California economy otherwise;
- The $4.219 billion loss leads to a total loss to the California economy of approximately $9.607 billion in business revenues;
- State and local tax losses will result from the statewide loss in business revenues;
- The $4.219 billion loss in business revenues may generate a tax loss of $586 million for state and local governments in 2020.
The impact of COVID-19 on the wine industry will ripple through all parts of the economy. Beyond lost jobs and business revenues, state and local governments will see impacts to their budgets and the services that they can provide to citizens. We suggest further analysis after the phased reopening of the economy, as new data become available, and the wine industry continues to adapt to the unprecedented impact of the pandemic.